CO129-383 - Public Offices - 1911 — Page 488

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[This Document is the Property of His Britannic Majesty's Government.]

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19697

AFFAIRS OF CHINA,

REC?

CONFIDENTIAL.

REGO 16 JUN 11

[May 19.]

SECTION 1.

[18992]

No. 1.

483

Dear Sir Francis,

Mr. Addis to Foreign Office.-(Received May 19.)

Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation, 31, Lombard Street, London, May 18, 1911. THE enclosed notes of a confidential statement made to Mr. Hillier on the 24th April was received by me this morning.

Hillier does not say by whom the statement was made to him, but the internal evidence would appear to point to Wang Ta-hsieh, the former Chinese Minister at London.

I give the statement for what it is worth.

Yours truly,

C. S. ADDIS.

Enclosure in No. 1.

(Confidential.)

Notes of Confidential Statement made to Mr. Hillier, April 24.

THE Japanese have long been maturing plans for bringing China into a state of dependency similar to that following the first treaty with Corea. The civil and military parties in Tokyo have been alternately in the ascendant, but the latter have now prevailed; and information gathered by Wang Ta-hsieh from various sources, including the friendly Ministers of other countries in Tokyo, convinces him that a blow is shortly to be struck. He obtained leave from his Government to come to Peking, and has reported the situation fully to the Regent, who, with Princes Ching and Tao, are greatly perturbed. Other members of the Grand Council are inclined to think the danger exaggerated.

The conclusion of the currency loan, pledging Manchurian revenues, is said to have given an impetus to Japanese policy. There have long been indications of military preparations, although Japan is on friendly terms with all the other Powers. Recently the age of conscription has been lowered from 21 to 16 years, giving an increase to the army of 500,000 men. The Japanese military party claim that the present is the moment to strike, since the Panamá Canal is not yet completed, and interference from Germany and France is not to be anticipated. It is not a question of seizing Manchuria, which Japan considers is already hers, but of establishing a Japanese domination at Peking.

The plan proposed is a military demonstration on the Corean frontier, accompanied by a naval demonstration at Shan-hai-kuan, and Japan is prepared, if necessary, to put 600,000 troops into the country. Communications will be cut south of Peking in in order to prevent the flight of the court, and the Regent will be forced to sign a treaty establishing a Japanese resident at Peking, and marking the end of Chinese independence.

Pretexts for a quarrel with China cau be furnished at any moment, the only obstacle to the immediate carrying out of the plan is want of sufficient funds, and opinions differ as to whether everything will be ready in three years, one year, or a few months. The factor on which the whole situation turns is the attitude of England, and China is keenly anxious to know this. If England is prepared to dissociate herself from Japan in this policy, and give China active diplomatic support, China would be prepared to rely on England's advice and would show her gratitude by a prompt settlement of the Pien-ma and other questions. Japanese domination in Peking would mean a serious blow to British trade and British interests, and the creation of a Chinese army, trained and commanded by Japanese, which might ultimately threaten British India.

The Chinese fear that this rapid development of Japanese designs is not fully realised by the British authorities, and they are anxious that this warning should be conveyed to the proper quarter before it is too late.

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